Five Tiers, Always Visible
We do not present certainty we do not have. Each item is assigned one of five labels, shown alongside the headline so a reader can weigh it immediately.
Supported by at least two independent, reliable sources, or a single authoritative primary source — an official statement, a verified document, or directly observed imagery.
We state events at this level as having occurred. Contested responsibility is still attributed to the claimant, not asserted as fact.
Credible reporting from one or more sources, but key details remain incomplete or uncorroborated.
We present the thrust of the report while explicitly flagging what is unresolved.
Derived from publicly available material — satellite imagery, ship transponder data (AIS), social media geolocation, public documents — and analyzed by our team.
We describe the open-source method used and link to the underlying material where possible.
An analytical judgment by our editors, built on cited evidence but drawing inferences about intent, trajectory, or causation.
Labeled as our assessment — never presented as established fact.
A claim is circulating but we cannot independently confirm it.
We report the claim's existence and its source, and explicitly state that verification is insufficient.
From Report to Published Label
A report moves through seven stages before it reaches the site. No stage is skipped for speed.
- 01
Source intake & triage
Every item is logged with its origin, timestamp (UTC), and source type. Items are triaged by urgency and verifiability before any reporting begins.
- 02
Corroboration
We seek independent corroboration. A single source can surface a report; it cannot establish it as CONFIRMED. Where corroboration is partial, the item is labeled DEVELOPING or OSINT.
- 03
Provenance check
Documents, images, and data are checked for provenance — origin, chain of custody, and signs of manipulation. Geolocation and reverse-image checks are run on visual material.
- 04
Geographic & temporal validation
Claims are anchored to a specific place and time. Vessel positions are cross-checked against AIS; reported events are matched to known locations and recent activity.
- 05
Confidence assignment
An editor assigns one of five confidence labels based on the evidence gathered. The label travels with the item — it is visible to the reader, not hidden in a footnote.
- 06
Editorial review
A second editor reviews the label, the attribution of contested claims, and the tone. Analysis is separated from reported fact.
- 07
Publication & updates
The item is published with its label and source count. As the picture changes, the label is updated and the change is timestamped.
- Loop
Continuous, not final
Labels can move up or down as evidence changes. Every revision is timestamped in UTC.
The Sources We Rely On, and How
We weight sources by their nature and track record. Lower tiers are used for leads and corroboration, not to establish events.
Primary & directly observed
Official statements, primary documents, satellite imagery, AIS data, on-record officials.
Established outlets
Regional and international outlets with a documented track record of accuracy.
OSINT aggregators & local monitors
Open-source intelligence collectives and local civil-society monitors, used for corroboration and leads.
Single uncorroborated reports
Used only to flag that a claim exists; published as UNVERIFIED with the source named.
We Attribute, We Do Not Adjudicate
The Red Sea region contains active disputes over borders, sovereignty, armed-conflict claims, casualty numbers, and government accusations. We do not resolve those disputes here.
What we do
- Attribute contested claims to the party making them.
- Name the source of casualty figures and note when they are unverified.
- Use neutral geographic descriptors for disputed territories.
- Separate our analysis (ASSESSMENT) from reported fact.
What we do not do
- Present one side's account of a disputed event as established fact.
- Adjudicate sovereignty or territorial claims.
- Publish casualty figures as confirmed without independent verification.
- State responsibility for an attack before it is attributed with evidence.
We Show Our Work, and Our Errors
When we are wrong, we say so plainly and quickly.
Corrections
Errors are corrected promptly. The original item notes what changed, when, and why — readers see the revision, not a silent edit.
Label revisions
When new evidence changes a confidence label, both the old and new labels are shown with their timestamps in UTC.
What we don't publish
We do not publish intelligence on tactical force movements that could endanger lives, nor unattributed rumor presented as reporting.